New Climate Risk Report Highlights Opportunities for Advancing Resilience in San Diego
San Diego Regional Policy & Innovation Center and Brookings Metro Join Forces for New Study
SAN DIEGO (Jan. 18, 2024) – With climate risk now cited as one of San Diego’s most pressing problems, Brookings Metro – in coordination with the Policy & Innovation Center (PIC) – released a report that reveals new insights related to growing climate-related heat, wildfire and flood threats in the region.
According to Susan Guinn, CEO of PIC, “Understanding climate risk is vitally important for our community, so we can prepare and make our communities more resilient. Heat risk is poised to intensify over the next 30 years. Wildfire risk impacts about half of all San Diego neighborhoods and will escalate over the next three decades.”
The report, authored by Brookings Metro, is aimed at better understanding the use of new data sources in the region – among them risk maps illustrating how risk varies across geography, over time and by climate risk category – to inform policy decisions, including guiding infrastructure decisions and funding. Also examined in the study are overlaps with social and economic characteristics that affect community vulnerability. To that end, the report includes case studies of three San Diego neighborhoods – City Heights, Mission Beach, and Rancho Mission– and their own unique climate risks.
Much of this report aligns with the City of San Diego’s Climate Resilient SD Plan that was released in 2021, but the insights and findings are applicable across our region – with potential implications for preparing for a climate resilient future.
“The City of San Diego is better prepared than most communities to take on the multiple challenges of climate change. This new study provides critical insights that local leaders need to make informed policy decisions and improve resilience going forward,” said Jenny Schuetz, senior fellow with Brookings Metro and an expert in housing and urban economics.
Key report findings include:
- Heat is the most widespread risk in San Diego and is strongly correlated with geography. Heat risk rises moving inland from the coast. The frequency of extreme heat will increase substantially over the next 30 years across most neighborhoods. Low-income neighborhoods do not have a higher average heat risk but will need more support in implementing adaptive strategies.
- About half of San Diego neighborhoods face wildfire risk. While the general patterns do not change over the next 30 years, the intensity of wildfire risk in areas currently affected will increase.
- Flood risk is both concentrated and diffuse. About 1% of parcels citywide have estimated flood risk. These parcels are dispersed widely across the city—many neighborhoods have one or two parcels with high risk. A small handful of neighborhoods have concentrated clusters of high-risk parcels; these are likely targets for intervention.
This report addresses vital implications for climate resilience strategies and strong recommendations to designate a centralized climate data office where the city and county share data and pool management funds, said Schuetz. “Public officials should act now to incorporate climate adaptation throughout their decision-making, investment, and communication processes. San Diego either spends money today to save lives and properties or spends more money in the future.”
According to the City of San Diego, San Diego is already experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves, increased wildfire risks, coastal flooding and more unpredictable and intense rain events – impacting the local economy, infrastructure and natural environment.
City of San Diego Mayor Todd Gloria says, “San Diego is a great place to live, work and play. But as the climate crisis deepens, we face increasing threats from extreme heat, wildfires and sea-level rise. We know those risks are not evenly distributed across our region, so we need data to guide investments in measures to protect residents, our infrastructure and our quality of life. I appreciate the opportunity to partner with Brookings and the San Diego Regional Policy and Innovation Center on emerging data sources and tools to deploy our resources as effectively as possible.”
The publication of this report aligns with PIC and Brookings Metro objectives to conduct analyses and research that highlight transformative opportunities in the San Diego region. The findings will be shared and disseminated through a variety of forums, with the hope that this impacts policymakers and other decision-makers. To view the full report, visit https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-climate-risk-data-can-help-communities-become-more-resilient/.
To learn more, visit thinkpic.org.
About the Policy & Innovation Center (PIC)
The Policy & Innovation Center is a think tank and social-impact incubator founded in partnership with the Brookings Institution, County of San Diego, and the San Diego Foundation. PIC conducts research and policy analysis to identify creative solutions to our communities’ biggest problems, and we build cross-sector, multijurisdictional partnerships to advance those solutions. Over the coming years, PIC will continue fostering strong and diverse partnerships among the leaders of the region; use equity-centered research to identify the region’s biggest needs and the best opportunities for change; challenge systemic inequities; and develop a pipeline of sustainable, scalable projects and pilots that improve the lives of San Diegans. For more information, visit thinkpic.org.
About Brookings Metro
The Brookings Institution is committed to quality, independence, and impact. Brookings Metro collaborates with local leaders to transform original research insights into policy and practical solutions that scale nationally. To learn more, please visit brookings.edu/metro.