San Diego economists have tried to predict the county’s economic future at an annual event for the past 41 years but, this year, they are having some trouble.

Economists and business leaders met Thursday at an economic forum held at the University of San Diego attended by roughly 150 people, including many students. Over the past four decades, the San Diego County Economic Roundtable has focused on problems in the local economy and tried to chart a way forward.

Ryan Ratcliff, economics professor at University of San Diego, said it’s typically hard to prove if the economy will do better or worse based on which political party is in charge. However, he said President-elect Donald Trump’s next term comes with a lot of unpredictability.

“In normal times, if you asked me how much things would radically change, I would probably say not much,” he said. “But I’m not sure these are normal times.”

Ratcliff said a lot of policy proposals put forward by Trump, such as buying Greenland, don’t have very relevant historical parallels. Additionally, he said it appears we are entering a new era of deregulation from the Supreme Court, a departure from trends in the 20th Century.

Ratcliff also said there are several pressing issues over the next few years that the government must face, including the national debt (and the cost of servicing the debt) and potential insolvency in Social Security and Medicare programs.

San Diego’s cross-border economy also may undergo significant changes. Kenia Zamarripa, vice president of international and public affairs at the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, said they aren’t sure if the growth in Tijuana’s manufacturing sector, and the San Diego companies that rely on it, will come out unscathed if Trump goes through with tariffs and new immigration policies.

Trump has promised mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, something the Tijuana City Council is trying to prepare for by diverting funds in case of a crisis. Zamarripa said threats of tariffs against Mexico and shifting views against work visas are creating a sense of uncertainty.

She said the chamber now estimates up to 60,000 Tijuana residents cross the border every day to work in the U.S. That’s double from estimates in 2016 of 25,000 to 30,000 every day.

“Even though it is someone we know,” Zamarripa said of Trump, “he comes a little more empowered with Congress and broad support of the U.S., in general.”

Tijuana’s economy has seen growth under nearshoring rules, which encouraged U.S. and Canadian economies to outsource to Mexico over China, that were part of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement passed in Trump’s first term. However, Zamarripa noted negotiations of the agreement are coming up in July and it’s unclear if Trump’s concern over trade deficits with Mexico will cause some type of retooling.

Discussion of San Diego County’s economy focused on disparities between ages, races and education levels. Daniel Enemark, chief economist of the San Diego Regional Policy and Innovation Center, said 335,000 people live in poverty in San Diego County. He argued resources were not well distributed throughout the county and the high cost of housing makes it worse.

Ratcliff said he was disheartened by San Diegans in their 20s and 30s leaving because they can’t afford the region. He argued more housing supply is needed to bring down costs.

“There’s a version of the future where we become more like Dana Point, Monterey or Santa Barbara,” he said, “which are lovely places to live if you already have a lot of money. But, not the dynamic, entrepreneurial, vibrant economy that we have in San Diego.”

The economic roundtable also featured a speech from Gen Z financial content creator Kyla Scanlon who gave her impressions of the national economy. She said the good news from last year was the U.S. avoided a recession, the labor market showed strength and inflation moderated.

Scanlon said the bad news included an affordability crisis that she said was caused by high housing costs, student loan payments and the erosion of trust in institutions. She cited the latest Harvard Youth Poll, which showed declining trust in the U.S. president, military, the Supreme Court, media, Congress and Wall Street. The poll showed the only institution that gained trust among respondents ages 18 to 29 years old was the United Nations.

Originally Published: January 17, 2025 at 12:49 PM PST